Ifo Institute: no cause for alarm among consumers yet – hopes rest with markets in Asia
According to economic researchers the current debate surrounding Europe’s debt crisis and the renewed speculation as to a possible Greek exit from the eurozone are currently not affecting Germans’ private consumption and travel behaviour.
Speaking on Friday at the 19th World Travel Monitor Forum in Pisa, Dr. Gernot Nerb, economic expert at the Munich ifo Institute for Economic Research said: “The positive signals continuing to come out of the German job market at present guarantee that the latest negative reports from Athens and Brussels will not alarm consumers.“ In this context he appealed for moves to combat the so-called cold progression. “The extra income which the federal government can now expect undoubtedly gives it the necessary leeway to reduce taxes on a small scale, and to thereby further stimulate consumption at home“, said Gernot Nerb.
However, he gave a stark warning of the economic consequences, should the crisis concerning Greece not be satisfactorily resolved. “It is of utmost political importance that everything be undertaken to avoid causing public alarm. What is needed is for brave and above all sensible and logical decisions to be taken”, he said. Next year would no doubt see a decline in the global economy. However he saw no immediate reason to panic. “Only a lack of coordinated measures will push the global economy back to the brink of another recession, as it did in 2008. But that is still a long way off.” According to Gernot Nerb there is a 70 per cent likelihood that the global economy will not drift back into recession.
According to Gerb, next year Asia will again be driving the global economy. “China and India, as well as Japan, carry our hopes for 2012“, he added.
Launched by the consultancy IPK International and sponsored by ITB Berlin, every year at the World Travel Monitor Forum in Pisa 50 tourism experts and scientists from around the world present current statistics and the latest trends in international tourism.
Dr. Martin Buck, director of the Competence Center Travel and Logistics at Messe Berlin: “The economic and political decisions due in the coming weeks will also have a significant impact on the travel industry and not least on Greece as a tourism destination.“
