Deutsche Lufthansa AG (LHA), Europe’s second-largest airline, cut its forecast for operating profit next year as weaker economic growth weighs on ticket prices and competition increases.
Operating income won’t rise to match an earlier forecast for about 2 billion euros ($2.52 billion) in 2015, the Cologne-based company said in a statement today. Instead, earnings will be “significantly higher” than 2014, it said. Lufthansa reiterated a target for operating profit to increase to about 1 billion euros this year.
Reduced expectations for global economic growth and an increase in Lufthansa’s pension costs mean Chief Executive Officer Carsten Spohr is cutting the company’s 2015 profit forecast for a second time since taking the helm in May. Lufthansa has endured a wave of strikes this year by pilots who are demanding the airline maintains retirement payments.
“Lufthansa’s vague guidance revision for next year reflects the numerous challenges ahead for the airline,” said Jack Diskin, an analyst at Goodbody Stockbrokers in Dublin, in a note. “Operational pressures persist across the entire network, so the cut does not surprise us. Weak demand, ongoing strike risk, and now staff cost charges associated with an inflated pension revaluation are all headwinds.”
Work Stoppages
Analysts are predicting operating profit of 1.57 billion euros next year, the average of 12 estimates in a Bloomberg survey. Lufthansa shares have fallen 22 percent this year, the worst performance in the six-member Bloomberg EMEA Airlines Index, which declined by 6.1 percent. Third-quarter sales rose 1.9 percent to 8.46 billion euros, while net income climbed 25 percent to 561 million euros.
“When we look ahead, we see the economic slowdown and the continuing declines in our passenger yields in the face of fierce competition,” Chief Financial Officer Simone Menne said, referring to a measure for average ticket prices. Lufthansa continues to experience pressure on yields, not only in Europe but in other regions especially in North America, the CFO said on a conference call.
“We expect yields next year to hold about stable, we don’t expect them to rise,” she said. In the medium term, “we must further improve our operating result and we must take appropriate corrective action in the form of the structural transformations that we are currently embarking on,” she said.
Fuel Expenses
The 2014 forecast includes the impact of the work stoppage, which Lufthansa said came in at about 170 million euros. Costs of any additional walkouts this year have not been factored into the outlook for 2014, the airline said.
Fuel expenses will amount to 6.7 billion euros this year, unchanged from a forecast in July, as volatility in prices and hedging measure mean the company does not fully enjoy the benefit from falling oil prices, Menne said.
Air France KLM Group yesterday said a walkout by pilots in September reduced operating profit by 330 million euros in the quarter, and said bookings remain weaker than usual.
